Studs, Duds, and Buds

by Andy Furman

I hung up my blogging cleats in December 2018 after a 12 year run because of many factors. I love the Giants. But after warning of so many problems in the franchise for so many years (along with friend and previous blogger cohort Glenn Warciski), it just became too much of a ball and chain. It was bad enough watching games which were pure torture, but then regurgitating the misery in a recap too?! Enough was enough.

So you would be fair to ask, what am I doing blogging again? Well, call this a strobe light flashing. I love the draft. Hope springs eternal. Watching the draft with verified insight is much better than stumbling around making wild guesses about the future success of so many prospects. My analyst (Wonder) has been proven to be better than the GMs, so I like to get his views. Sharing them is not lot like recounting yet another loss to the Eagles. There is hope we can draft good players. Last year, as an example, Wonder eyed Will Hernandez well before the Draft, and specifically said this was one time the Giants masses would be correct to want this guy (at 2.34). When the pick came in and the Giants took this guy, it was Christmas in April. It is great to have that kind of clarity.

Wonder is also wrong. He missed on Flowers and Mahomes. But anyone who is any good will tell you they are not perfect. He loved a Strong Safety who no one heard of named Kam Chancellor, ranking him 55th overall when he was taken 133rd by Seattle. 5th round! Think about that when we talk about value. THE DRAFT IS ALL ABOUT VALUE. Anyone can select a good player in Round 1. It’s about getting more than 2 starters per year out of your draft. This year, with multiple Round 1 picks and 12 total selections coming, Gettleman needs hopefully 4 if not more to hit. We’ve got some guys here that provide an answer….

Studs: These are our Top 50 prospects. They are ranked in order of projected success. Barkley was Ranked #1 overall by Wonder last year, but that did not make him the best selection (because of RB position). Think of the list as a road map. It does not tell you where to go, just where they are. This year, a guy like Dexter Lawrence may very well get drafted at the beginning of Round 2 because of his position as a NT, but you’ll be rewarded because of the value.

Duds: These are guys who will be overdrafted on balance. Will ALL of them fail? No! Wonder is not perfect by any means. Any draft analyst who comments should be willing to verify and be candid about their missed evals. For the record, when we verified his track record, he stood out much stronger on the busts more than the good players, where he was only slightly better than the GMs. Still, just because Wonder can be negative does not mean his career is doomed. It just means his VALUE for where he is taken does not need to be this high! Most people do not understand that the draft is about value. 3 players come to mind as classic examples of players with decent ability to play football but not worthy of where they were taken: Tyson Alualu, Ted Ginn, and Eli Apple. There was nothing wrong with these players. But to take these prospects in the Top half of Round 1 was way overvaluing their future. If you wanted these players, TRADE DOWN. They’d likely still be there and you’d at least get paid (with another high pick) for the effort. And if he was taken by another team, pick someone else. Summary- these are guys we see as being overdrafted. It doesn’t mean they can’t contribute but on balance we believe they’ll underperform for where they are taken.

Buds: These are budding opportunities. Sleepers. These are the Kam Chancellors. We’ve got a handful of them. Most will still be around on Day 3. Mark Fields and LBer David Long (not the CB) lead this list. It would not surprise us if someone took them in late Round 3 but we suspect they’ll fall to Round 4. Their upside is tremendous. That’s budding value.

If this set of 3 groups of prospects helps to reduce the noise even a little bit, it will have been worth it for how we all watch the Draft. Happy hunting and Go Giants.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s